Thinktank’s schizoid report will not help Osborne to secure more cuts

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Schizoid report: José Ángel Gurría, secretary general of the OECD. He’d probably object to the way we’ve defaced his sign, but it now provides a more accurate description of his organisation’s opinions.

How can the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development tell George Osborne that he should invest in infrastructure projects but continue with his policy of cutting public spending, when the first public spending he cut was infrastructure projects?

Is this a sign of the delirium into which the western economies are sinking, partly through slavish adherence to neoliberal nonsense – in the face of all the facts – and party through a lack of raw intelligence?

The OECD, according to The Guardian, has revised down its economic growth forecast for the UK. What a surprise; they haven’t revised our growth upwards since before Osborne became Chancellor – and that alone indicates where the problem lies.

It says spending cuts and a lack of consumer and business confidence are restricting what we should all call “the recovery” only in mocking terms.

But, as the newspaper reports, “it [the OECD] backed George Osborne’s plans for further spending cuts, saying: ‘With a high budget deficit and gross government debt rising to 90 per cent of GDP in 2012, further fiscal consolidation is necessary to restore the sustainability of public finances.'”

What? It’s still supporting the discredited view that when public debt hits 90 per cent of GDP, growth is slowed? Hasn’t that idea been comprehensively rubbished – not only on paper but in the fact that UK growth hit standstill point the instant Osborne came in as Chancellor and inflicted his policies on us all?

It isn’t the amount of debt that’s the problem – its the stupid things that blinkered upper-class idiots do in response!

The OECD said the Labour market was “resilient”, so it obviously has been paying too much attention to DWP press releases when it should have looked up the facts. According to the Resolution Foundation (yes, another thinktank), as reported in The Independent, “The jobs market remains weak and is likely to continue to struggle well into the second half of the decade, making this a more severe downturn for employment levels than the two previous recessions”.

The article states: “The Resolution Foundation has performed an analysis of the total adult employment rate – which reflects the increase in the size of the population and the growth of the available workforce – and found that there remains a “jobs gap” of 930,000. This is the number of new jobs that would be required to restore the employment rate from its present level of 58.5 per cent to the 60.3 per cent recorded in 2008. This jobs gap has actually grown from 830,000 in the final quarter of last year.”

Once again, we see the facts do not support Coalition government press releases.

The OECD’s claim that average real earnings are “weak”, on the other hand, is realistic and gives the necessary perspective to a report from the Office for National Statistics that the total number of weekly hours worked across the economy hit a new record high of 950.3 million in the first quarter of the year.

If everybody’s working so much, why haven’t we got any money? Answer: Because the Tory-led government has been pushing wages downwards, ever since it came into power. Average earnings for bosses of FT350 companies have rocketed upwards, but the worker on the street had a pay rise of just 0.8 per cent last year. Look at the way benefit increases have been pushed below the rate of inflation (the DWP again!) in order to make the unemployed desperate to take whatever work they can get – no matter how poorly-paid – and to put those who have jobs in fear of losing them, so that they won’t be demanding pay rises anytime soon.

Back to the OECD: It wants a house-building programme to spur jobs growth. Without this, it warned that house values could overheat, sparking another price bubble. Isn’t that what George Osborne wants? Look at the so-called “second-home subsidy” he announced in the March budget, when he said the government would underwrite a percentage of new house purchases. Already we have seen warnings (from Sir Mervyn King in this Vox article) that it will create a price bubble.

So not only is Osborne right; he’s also wrong. Growth is down because of his policy of cuts, but he should continue making them. Unemployment is down – but the jobs gap has grown.

Also, not only is Osborne wrong; he’s very wrong. Low wages mean economy-boosting demand is also low – but the government is pushing wages down still further. House-building is needed to spur jobs growth and prevent a price bubble – but he isn’t building houses and he is actively pursuing the creation of a price bubble.

That’s what the OECD report says. There’s no way Osborne should be using it to support his policies but I bet he will.

If I were the secretary of state in one of the government departments he’s trying to squeeze for more cuts, I would be phoning the local mental hospital, saying a dangerous madman was loose in Whitehall and demanding that he should be sectioned.

But it seems that, instead of this, the ministers who’ve dragged their feet will be subjected to a grilling by the all-new ‘Star Chamber’, which is the name for the public expenditure committee Osborne has set up. Apparently ‘Star Chamber’ has a “mystique” about it (according to The Guardian); in fact it will consist of Osborne, Danny Alexander and those ministers who’ve given in and agreed cuts, haranguing the dissenters until they fold up like cheap thugs who’ve been punched in the kidneys once too often.

The fact that they will all eventually capitulate means we can laugh at them next time they’re on television trying to act tough, but the whole sorry story leaves us with one immutable fact:

This is no way to run an economy.

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Where’s Daddy’s Pig gets onto its second leg – or is that trotter?

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austerity, Bank of England, bankers, city of london, corruption, Downing Street, economy, mark mcgowan, Mervyn King, wheres daddys pig

From the ‘Where’s Daddy’s Pig’ blog site:

“Artist Mark McGowan is to crawl on his hands and knees pushing a toy pig along the road with his nose an incredible three miles from number 10 Downing street to the Bank of England where he will hand in the pig to the guvenor Mervyn King in honour of his services to the destruction of the economy its facilitation of ideological austerity and the criminal activity of the City of London aka the City of Corruption.”

Now read on…

Miliband’s plan: Return of the 10p tax rate

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bank, Bank of England, benefit, bonus, charge, David Cameron, disability, economy, Ed Miliband, energy, fare, income, Interest, Labour, mansion, Mervyn King, Mike Sivier, mikesivier, Nick Clegg, payday loan, people, politics, rail, tax, train, tuition fee, unemployment, Vox Political

Labour’s tax revelation: Ed Miliband announces his plan to reinstate the 10p lower tax band, as broadcast by the BBC.

What’s David Cameron going to whinge about now?

The comedy Prime Minister stuffed his foot deep into his own mouth during his questions on Wednesday, when he said he was not interested in Ed Miliband’s speech today because it would not contain any major policy messages.

Instead, Miliband not only took away one of Cameron’s favourite crutches – he has loved attacking Labour for removing the 10p tax rate (which he knew perfectly well was only intended to be temporary at the time) – but also spirited away one of Nick Clegg’s policy plans: Reintroduce the 10p rate and use a tax on mansions worth more than £2 million to pay for it.

That’s a brilliant strategy for the current situation. It answers Cameron’s criticism and it makes a clear message about Clegg – that Labour will do what he and his Liberal Democrats could not.

And it creates a clear priority divide between Labour and the Conservatives, who will introduce in a tax cut for people in the highest tax band in April.

Around 25 million people will benefit from this change, compared with 13,000 who will make money from the Tory tax plan.

His comment that the recovery will be created by the many – not just the few at the top – meshes very well with the opinion put forward on this blog yesterday about the Bank of England’s optimistic view of the future of the economy. The bank’s view, put forward by Sir Mervyn King, was that an improved manufacturing sector would lift us up – but this would only improve matters for people at the top of the economic ladder; Miliband’s plan brings rewards to those at the bottom.

And we know, don’t we, that people at the lower end of the pay scale keep the money circulating. That’s how the economy grows – keeping the money moving.

Mr Miliband also announced several other plans that would have important implications for working people and those who are on low incomes. These are to:

•Break the stranglehold of the big six energy suppliers.

•Stop the train company price rip-offs on the most popular routes.

•Introduce new rules to stop unfair bank charges.

•And cap interest on payday loans.

And a policy on tuition fees is promised before the next election; Miliband says he can see how off-putting they are to people who would otherwise put themselves through university.

These are all sensible measures. We pay too much for our energy; we pay too much on rail travel; the banks rip us off; and payday loans are nothing but a scam anyway – one that too many people are forced to use because the current system ensures they don’t earn enough to pay their way.

In the Q&A session, Miliband said he would tax bankers’ bonuses to fund a work programme for unemployed young people – and he thinks businesses would back this. It’s a plan that might work, as the economic benefit from getting people back into work – the expansion that would result – could offset the losses the banks would suffer. So everyone could win.

The urgent issue that hasn’t been covered today is that of disability benefits. Vox Political would like to see Labour change its approach to follow that outlined in the House of Lords this week: That the disability benefit system must be rethought, starting with the needs of disabled people, not with a plan for a budget cut.

As matters stood at the start of the current government, only 0.4 per cent of disability benefit claimants were believed to be claiming fraudulently. That’s one in every 250 claimants – a very small amount. The current bid to clear as many people off the books as possible – no matter how ill they may be – is an abomination that cannot be allowed to pass.

It seems David Cameron, campaigning in Eastleigh, has been asked for his opinion on the main announcement. He said it “looks like it has been cobbled together overnight”.

That’s a weak response from the man of whom Mr Miliband said: “Have you ever seen a more incompetent, hopeless, out of touch, u-turning, pledge-breaking, make it up as you go along, back of the envelope, miserable shower than this Prime Minister and this government?”

Expect Labour’s poll ratings to enjoy a significant bounce.

How can unemployment be dropping at the same time as claims for joblessness are rising?

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avoidance, Bank of England, BBC, benefit, benefits, business, claimant, CPI, disposable, economy, George Osborne, government, haven, income, inflation, infrastructure, Irresponsibility, job market, jobless, Jobseeker's Allowance, living wage, Mervyn King, Mike Sivier, mikesivier, OBR, Office for National Statistics, Office of Budget, Olympic, ONS, people, politics, responsibility, RPI, spending, tax, The Guardian, Treasury, unemployment, Vox Political, welfare

Today, the government was very pleased to announce, on the BBC and in all the usual right-wing rags, that the number of people out of work in the UK has fallen to its lowest total for more than a year – 2.51 million or 7.8 per cent of the working-age population.

But the claimant count – which tracks the number of people receiving Jobseekers’ Allowance and is the most timely measure of employment – rose by 10,100 last month, the largest increase since September 2011, as reported by the BBC and The Guardian.

Both figures were released by the Office for National Statistics, which seems to be treading on territory that is practically owned by the Office of Budget Irresponsibility.

Are you as confused as I am?

How can unemployment be down when more people are claiming for it?

No explanation.

It’s interesting that long-term unemployment has increased by 12,000, meaning those out of work for over a year now number 894,000.

Part-time employment rose by 49,000 to 8.1 million, more than a quarter of the workforce and close to a record high.

The fall in unemployment has been attributed to a reduction in youth unemployment, but that still leaves 963,000 people, aged between 16 and 24, looking for work.

Most tellingly, average incomes rose by 1.8 per cent for the year to date, while inflation measured according to CPI is now 2.7 per cent. According to RPI, it’s 3.2 per cent. That means the spending power is falling.

Economists say the job market is worsening, possibly as people who were hired for the Olympics, and other summer events, come off firms’ books.

Bank of England supremo Mervyn King said the figures suggested the labour market was “pretty strong” but said it was hard to reconcile this with the economy’s weak growth.

I’ve got a pretty good idea about that, Mervyn.

The economy is growing slowly because the vast majority of people aren’t being paid reasonably by their employers. Wages have grown by almost (or more than, depending which yardstick you use) a whole percentage point less than inflation. People don’t have the money to spend!

If the economy is to enjoy real growth, then the government needs to launch a major attack on tax avoidance and tax havens, get that money back into the UK Treasury where it belongs, and then use it to invest in British infrastructure and British business. That way, firms can get back on their feet and will have no excuse not to pay a living wage to workers. Then working-class people – the vast majority of the population – will have a higher disposable income and therefore more spending power (they’ve hardly got any to spare at the moment). They will use that money; it will go around the system again, and the economy will grow again.

If I can see that – and I’m no economist – why can’t you? Why can’t Gideon George Osborne?

I think we all know the answer to that. He can.

But it suits his purposes to ignore it.