I reckon we can expect the Liberal Democrat Party to collapse after the 2015 election. In that event, I think the Orange Bookers would defect to the Conservative Party (which is where, ideologically, they belong – one of my commenters talked about them all being adherents of traditional Whig “power of new money uber alles” thinking and I like his description of the current government as “Whiggery-pokery”). There might be a rump Liberal Party left behind – the LD MP in my own constituency, Brecon and Radnorshire, is a former Labour Party member so I don’t expect him to join the Tories – but they’d be a spent force.

Pride's Purge

(not satire – it’s the Lib Dems!)

I’ve been following politics for a long, long time and it’s hard to overestimate the unprecedented and massive collapse in support facing the Liberal Democrats at the next European, local and general elections.

A relatively unmentioned recent phenomenon in UK politics is the gradual but consistent rise of the Greens in the opinion polls – who are now chasing the Lib Dems into 5th place for the European elections.

Here’s the latest polling from YouGov from the European elections (the most reliable polling company in my opinion):

LAB 29%, UKIP 28%, CON 22%, LDEM 9%, GREEN 8%

Of course I’m well aware that voting patterns are different for the European elections as compared to general elections where minor parties are traditionally heavily squeezed by the two biggest parties.

But nevertheless, in polling for the general election too the Lib Dems are now consistently behind UKIP…

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