allowance, Anthony Nicholas, austerity, autumn statement, avoid, bedroom tax, benefit cap, book, breathtaking complacency, budget, building, cap, Coalition, Conservative, debt, deficit, Democrat, Department, double-dip, DWP, economy, education, election, employer, employment, error, evade, evasion, fraud, Free, fuel duty, full-time, Funding For Lending, George Osborne, Gideon, help to buy, holiday, house, Huffington Post, ill, Joanne Wood, jobs tax, Jobseeker's Allowance, JSA, keynes, KPMG, Labour, Lib Dem, Liberal, living standards, loan, Mark Ferguson, married, marry, mental, Michael Gove, Mike Sivier, mikesivier, national insurance, OBR, office, Owen Jones, part-time, pay, pensioner, Pensions, recession, responsibility, Robin Stacey, sanction, school meal, self-employed, sell, sick, spending, stagnate, stagnation, student, surplus, tax, The Guardian, Tom Clark, Tories, Tory, Twitter, under occupation charge, VAT, Vox Political, wage, welfare, Will Moriarty, work, zero hours
If anybody else had prattled on for 50 minutes while hardly uttering a single sensible word, they would have been consigned to a mental hospital forthwith.
But this is Coalition Britain, and the speaker was George Osborne, the man who likes to tell us all that he is in charge of the nation’s finances. Thanks to his government’s Department for Work and Pensions, nobody is allowed to have mental illnesses anymore; after this speech, it seems likely we all have an idea about the reason for that.
A 50-minute speech is a lot of verbiage, and it is certain that worthier journalists across Britain – if not the world – have already analysed it to exhaustion. Allow me to let you into a secret:
They’re probably trying too hard.
Most of the speech was about putting Labour down. The Opposition has made all the headway over the past few weeks, and we all knew Osborne was under orders to change the mood music of the nation in time for Christmas.
Did he manage it? Not really. His speeches always come across as strained events, where he’s making an effort to be clever without ever achieving it. As a result, the message gets lost. We can therefore discount the Labour-bashing.
That leaves us with what he actually said. Even here, his meaning was at times opaque. What follows is an attempt to provide a handy guide to George-speak, for anyone unfortunate enough to have heard him yesterday.
Osborne: “We have held our nerve while those who predicted there would be no growth until we turned the spending taps back on have been proved comprehensively wrong.”/Meaning: “I am lying. Austerity failed miserably and the economy flatlined. A few months ago I realised that we would have nothing to show at election time so I turned the spending taps back on, with Help To Buy and Funding For Lending. I know that these are exactly the sort of Keynesian economic levers that I preached against for three years but I’m hoping that nobody noticed.”
The hard work of the British people is paying off, and we will not squander their efforts./Osborne appears to be celebrating his three years of stagnation. He inherited growth and decided to trash it. (MagsNews on Twitter)
There was no double-dip recession./“Phew! Lucky escape there!”
At the time of the Budget in March, the Office of Budget Responsibility forecast that growth this year would be 0.6 per cent. Today, it more than doubles that forecast and the estimate for growth will be 1.4 per cent./“Please God don’t let anybody remember that three years ago, the forecast for this year was 2.9 per cent.”
Today in Britain, employment is at an all-time high… We have the lowest proportion of workless households for 17 years./These jobs have increased the numbers of the working poor. Too few are full-time; too many are part-time, zero-hours or self-employed, serving up no National Insurance contributions from employers, no holiday or sick pay, or making contractors work long hours for less than the minimum wage.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefit has fallen by more than 200,000 in the past six months—the largest such fall for 16 years./“And we have imposed sanctions on more people on Jobseekers’ Allowance than ever before, in order to produce that figure.”
By 2018-19, on this measure, the OBR does not expect a deficit at all. Instead, it expects Britain to run a small surplus. These numbers mean that the Government will meet their fiscal mandate to bring the structural current budget into balance and meet it one year early./Although of course the books were initially supposed to be balanced by 2015. (Huffington Post live blog)
This year, we will borrow £111 billion, which is £9 billion less than was feared in March./…and £41 billion more than forecast in 2010.
We will cap overall welfare spending./But this will not include the state pension (half the social security budget) or the most cyclical jobseeker benefits./”A living wage would mean less dosh on in-work benefits; letting councils build would mean less subsidies for private landlords.” (Owen Jones on Twitter)
Pensioners will be more than £800 better off every year./But as usual he’s ignoring the VAT elephant in the room. (Mark Ferguson on Twitter)
We think that a fair principle is that, as now, people should expect to spend up to a third of their adult lives in retirement. Based on the latest life expectancy figures, applying that principle would mean an increase in the state pension age to 68 in the mid-2030s and to 69 in the late 2040s./But life expectancy depends on where you live and how much money you have, meaning the poor continue to pay more towards the pensions of the rich./”Current pensioners better off – future pensioners paying for it. What was that about “making our kids pay for current spending” George?” (Mark Ferguson of LabourList on Twitter)
Most wealthy people pay their taxes and make a huge contribution to funding our public services; the latest figures show that 30 per cent of all income tax is paid by just one per cent of taxpayers./Estimates of the amount of tax that is not collected range between £25-£120 billion per year and it is not the poor who aren’t paying up.
This year the rich pay a greater share of the nation’s income taxes than was the case in any year under the last Labour Government./Because they now have more income. Simple really. (Tom Clark of The Guardian, on Twitter)
Today we set out in detail the largest package of measures to tackle tax avoidance, tax evasion, fraud and error so far this Parliament. Together it will raise over £9 billion over the next five years./Including capital gains tax for foreign investors on sales of UK property, which has nothing to do with tax avoidance/evasion, fraud or error.
We must confront this simple truth: if we want more people to own a home, we have to build more homes… The latest survey data showed residential construction growing at its fastest rate for a decade./The rate of house building is at its lowest peacetime level since the 1920s
This autumn statement has found the financial resources to fund the expansion of free school meals to all school children in reception, year 1 and year 2, announced by the Deputy Prime Minister and supported by me./On Wednesday, the Lib Dems and Michael Gove’s education department argued over who had to pay for it.
Extra funding will be provided to science, technology, and engineering courses [in universities]. The new loans will be financed by selling the old student loan book, allowing thousands more to achieve their potential./And pushing thousands into the hands of debt collectors.
The best way to help business is by lowering the burden of tax. KPMG’s report last week confirmed for the second year running that Britain has the most competitive business tax system in the world./KPMG would know – it writes the tax system and also runs some of the larger tax avoidance schemes.
From April 2015 we will introduce a new transferable tax allowance for married couples… Four million families will benefit, many of them among the poorest working families in our country./Osborne says the Tories are backing British Families – but only ones who are married it seems. (Mark Ferguson on Twitter)/While the new tax arrangements bribe families to marry, the benefit cap will bribe big families to split up. (Tom Clark on Twitter)
We are all in this together./The biggest lie of this Parliament.
We are also helping families with their energy bills./Commence the cutting of the “green crap”. This from the “Greenest government ever”. (Mark Ferguson on Twitter)
Next year’s fuel duty rise will be cancelled./This is a cut in a tax that was never imposed in the first place.
We are going to abolish the jobs tax on young people under the age of 21. Employer national insurance contributions will be removed altogether on a million and a half jobs for young people./Young people will therefore have less chance to get contribution-based benefit. National Insurance assures people their pension contributions – except when it isn’t paid. So they will have no contributions to show for any years they worked before 21 and will have to work until their late 60s.
The cost for a business of employing a young person on a salary of £12,000 will fall by over £500./This is a bonus for businesses, not employees.
“Jobs tax” – it’s ludicrous, isn’t it? National Insurance has been a respected part of British life for more than 100 years but Osborne, living as he does in a mythical Victorian-era golden age that never actually existed, thinks it is a “jobs tax”. Either that or he’s still bruised by the fact that Labour’s labelling of the under-occupation charge as a Bedroom Tax caught on with the public.
Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls got on his feet and immediately attacked Osborne’s “breathtaking complacency” for denying the drop in living standards faced by everyone in the country, with families already £1,600 per year worse off. Osborne laughed. He thought that was funny.
The Shadow Chancellor pointed out that we are enduring the slowest recovery in a century, and that average real wages will have dropped by 5.8 per cent by the end of the Parliament (except for fatcat business bosses).
He was having a hard time getting his points across, however, because Tory MPs were heckling him very loudly. Owen Jones tweeted, appositely, “Do the Tories think that a bunch of braying MPs dripping with privilege, while ordinary people’s living standards crash, is good TV?”
Maybe they did. Maybe they thought they had the public on their side.
Let’s have a look at a few comments from the public – courtesy of the Huffington Post:
“Planning to kill more people, George?” (Robin Stacey)
“Spend more you wet lipped monkey.” (Will Moriarty)
“No one has an ounce of faith in anything you say, you parasitic pool of curdled warthog’s puke.” (Anthony Nicholas)
And finally: “Hope you end the speech with your resignation x” (Joanne Wood – and yes, she did mean to end with a kiss).
What a shame Osborne did not follow her advice.
Vox Political is funded entirely by donations and book sales.
You can make a one-off donation here:
Alternatively, you can buy the first Vox Political book,
Strong Words and Hard Times
in either print or eBook format here:
Reblogged this on thepositivevoice.
Reblogged this on kickingthecat.
Colin M. Taylor said:
It seems we’ve returned to Dickensian times – he’s being paid by the word, no matter how superfluous
Pingback: The State of Osborne: a visitor’s guide | Jay's Journal
ghost whistler said:
This aversion to spending. Pure bizarre ideology.
Surely the point of collecting taxes is to spend them on things, like, i dunno, welfare, education, public services (what’s left of them)?
Mike Sivier said:
They don’t like collecting taxes, though, because then they have to redistribute money from the rich to help the poor – and they don’t see why they should bother.
ghost whistler said:
Isn’t it more that taxes are for the little people?
They are happy to collect taxes from them, just not their chums in big business which is why big corporations seemingly make no profit.
No profit = no taxable resources.
Colin M. Taylor said:
welfare, education, public services (what’s left of them)?
Tories spending money on SOCIALIST ideas?
Mike Sivier said:
As little as they think they can get away with spending. They never liked supporting these things – that’s why Cameron is on record as wanting all public services sold off except security and the judiciary (although it is clear that Grayling wants to sell as much of that as possible – justice for the wealthy and all that).
Colin M. Taylor said:
Well, I wouldn’t bet against security being flogged off – the bulk of Defence Research has already been flogged off as QinetiQ and what’s left, as DSTL is being downsized. MoD guard Force has been largely been replaced by Civil Police-probably then replaced by G4S when the Budget cuts bite further. ‘m willing to bet that GCHQ becomes an NSA outstation in due course
Mike Sivier said:
I’m willing to bow to your better knowledge. It all seems highly likely. Just because Cameron said he didn’t want to sell security and justice, that gives us no certainty that he meant it.
Pingback: Vox Political Analyses Osborne’s Autumn Panto Performance | ukgovernmentwatch
“Jobs Tax”? Its fascinating really. I don’t expect many Tories on twitter will be arguing that NI isn’t a tax, as they have been about Bedroom Tax.
Oh well… the fun continues!
Pingback: The State of Osborne: a visitor's guide | Welfa...
Mike, from what I’ve heard Osborne’s attack on NI as a ‘jobs tax’ is part of the Tories’ plans to sell off the NHS. I’m sorry if this gets a bit ‘friend of a friend’ story-like, but I was talking to a friend of mine in Cheltenham, who had been arguing with one of local Tories on-line. This particular Conservative was peddling the line that the state can no longer afford to support a National Health Service. My friend told me that he’d tried to show him the opposite: that the NHS is more than affordable from National Insurance contributions. He then told me that despite having repeated argued this, the local Tory still keeps posting the same nonsense. In my friend’s view, it was because the City does not want to raise NI. Hence, Osborne’s attack on National Insurance as a tax on jobs. It’s all because his friends and paymasters in the City have decided that they don’t like it, and want to privatise the NHS.
Mike Sivier said:
That seems about right to me. Of course NI is the most regressive payment that working people make – above a certain pay level, it is paid at just one per cent. I think a future Labour government needs to reform it so that it is progressive, with higher rates paid by those on higher salaries.
Pingback: The State of Osborne: a visitor's guide | Steve...
Reblogged this on Dnmufc's Blog.
Michael Hull said:
I’d hate to think what state this country will be in if Cameron and his cronies win the next election.
It seems to me that more and more ‘government’ functions will be privatised. The NHS is being prepared for privatisation because that may allow the Tories the room to abolish National Insurance. If you want a pension you will either have to belong to a workplace scheme or make your own arrangements.
He’s a sociopath, along with IDS, who is also a sadist
Mike Sivier said:
The New Yorker has published an interesting article here – http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/12/by-george-britains-austerity-experiment-didnt-work.html – confirming (more or less) everything I said in my article here – https://mikesivier.wordpress.com/2013/12/03/prepare-to-sift-the-substance-from-the-sewage-in-the-chancellors-autumn-statement/
It’s as if they’ve been reading Vox Political!
Frederick Robinson said:
And of course the 2018-2019 ‘surplus’ will include a little ‘family silver’ bonus in the form of the proceeds from the sale of Royal Mail.
I’m going to be a real pedant here, but really and truly the NHS is NOT affordable out of NI contributions and that is for two reasons. One is that, although there is occasionally ‘lending’ from the NIC fund specifically for the NHS the size of the NHS budget would swamp the NIC fund completely and leave no money for its actual purpose. The second is that the NHS is set up specifically and ideologically to be paid from general taxation. Bevan did not want (and I think this was absolutely the right principle) there to be any association with notions of ‘insurance’ and health. Slippery slope and all that. If anyone’s interested I can tell you what NI is for specifically (and it is a very rare example of a hypothecated tax income), but it isn’t really the subject here.